This week 1424.45 international spot gold on $1447.5, highest opening try $$1419.3, minimum dip, by Friday afternoon plate, a portion of barrel 1818-1820 dollars last JiaoYiZhou rise, or $13.7 0.97%, dynamic weeks K line present a root blunt high recedes small positive line.
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The strong in both silver gold, led by another historic highs, on Thursday but we think should be alert for phased market could trigger adjustment. Why conclude judgement? We think this is only round the uplink gold geopolitical unrest triggered north of pure theme market and is a local bull market, rather than round of strategic foresight fund bull market. Now that is a local bull market, then we need to be vigilant market soared anytime possible after adjustment.
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Judging from the geopolitical, Libya on March 20 started in air strikes by force of sanctions, also make gold prologue, oil prices this week for uplink. The most radical silver prices upward, this basically comes from silver city market capacity are smaller, more vulnerable to funding boost. After continuous air strikes in case should be Libya requirements, Tuesday in New York the UN security council headquarters is Libya problems due to the wide divergence closed-door consultations meeting, postponed until Thursday, but on Thursday did not get the result to moderate. U.n. secretary-general ban ki-moon said on Thursday, no evidence of Libyan authorities have taken steps to comply with the UN security council resolutions. U.n. ambassador Libyan government warned if don't comply with the security council resolution, or take further measures, namely the security council, led by France seems to tacitly to Libya's strikes. Also means Libya mess fear further will continue. In addition, the air strikes against Libya, international against public opinion is also rising, especially in Russia most strongly believe that some countries, has been under the guise of humanitarian interfere in the internal affairs for himself, its essence is the essence of seeking seize resources interests. On Thursday, us secretary of state Hillary Clinton said the no-fly zones for Libya to NATO command and control, and to the NATO has agreed to command all the action in Libya.
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This JinShi and market, completely from the situation boost from Libya. Boost root cause is worried about Libya mess will affect global crude supply pattern, causing global inflation further deterioration. But at least from it now appears that this worry redundant. Libyan oil nissan 160 million barrels a day, a single Saudi of idle produce more than 400 million barrels, is global oil spare capacity about 600 million barrels a day. Libya's oil supply shortage currently has been spare capacity, so completely offset violence does not affect recent global Libyan crude pattern. So the oil and gold is a kind of uplink, the theme of speculative use the. Now that is a lack of strategic guiding significance of local speculative market and we think its persistent doubts.
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Review on March 20, for 2003, that is the war in Iraq, for the day of the 8 years of the coincidence of after March 20, Libya encounter air-raid. But different is, after the outbreak of the war in Iraq, whether in gold and oil prices continue to adjust stage. When Iraq nissan in 250 million barrels of crude oil to more than current Libya, the global energy supply more influence. But why gold and oil prices when the war in Iraq, and currently adjusting gold and oil prices stronger by theme support.company First of all, we think that no matter when the war in Iraq, or the current Libya war, its oil supply shortages are not from essentially affect global crude supply pattern, global other unused oil capacity makes up the corresponding supply shortages. But the gold market in 2003 with 11 years of the gold market has changed a lot. In 2003 the gold market investment function is not the average investor fully understand, so gold by largely real consumer demand, when in gold physical effects of the off-season, weak consumption market demand foundation make gold forming no corresponding market. Currently the gold market investment function has been investors highly recognized, investment and speculative demand replace physical gold consumption demand, becoming the main factors of influence. While investment and speculative relative to the real wu vwu yang consumer demand exists is concerned, its flexibility. In this case, some special factors, such as the current Libya war is easy to enlarge the investment and speculative demand gold, in spite of the current in the off-season, real consumption elasticity of demand significantly amplified promoted this gold rise. And this investment and speculative demand elasticity of amplification of ordinary investors often by suit, especially speculative suit, so the author thought that this is only a partial bull market.
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