demand elasticity of amplification

This week 1424.45 international spot gold on $1447.5, highest opening try $$1419.3, minimum dip, by Friday afternoon plate, a portion of barrel 1818-1820 dollars last JiaoYiZhou rise, or $13.7 0.97%, dynamic weeks K line present a root blunt high recedes small positive line.

 

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The strong in both silver gold, led by another historic highs, on Thursday but we think should be alert for phased market could trigger adjustment. Why conclude judgement? We think this is only round the uplink gold geopolitical unrest triggered north of pure theme market and is a local bull market, rather than round of strategic foresight fund bull market. Now that is a local bull market, then we need to be vigilant market soared anytime possible after adjustment.

 

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Judging from the geopolitical, Libya on March 20 started in air strikes by force of sanctions, also make gold prologue, oil prices this week for uplink. The most radical silver prices upward, this basically comes from silver city market capacity are smaller, more vulnerable to funding boost. After continuous air strikes in case should be Libya requirements, Tuesday in New York the UN security council headquarters is Libya problems due to the wide divergence closed-door consultations meeting, postponed until Thursday, but on Thursday did not get the result to moderate. U.n. secretary-general ban ki-moon said on Thursday, no evidence of Libyan authorities have taken steps to comply with the UN security council resolutions. U.n. ambassador Libyan government warned if don't comply with the security council resolution, or take further measures, namely the security council, led by France seems to tacitly to Libya's strikes. Also means Libya mess fear further will continue. In addition, the air strikes against Libya, international against public opinion is also rising, especially in Russia most strongly believe that some countries, has been under the guise of humanitarian interfere in the internal affairs for himself, its essence is the essence of seeking seize resources interests. On Thursday, us secretary of state Hillary Clinton said the no-fly zones for Libya to NATO command and control, and to the NATO has agreed to command all the action in Libya.

 

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This JinShi and market, completely from the situation boost from Libya. Boost root cause is worried about Libya mess will affect global crude supply pattern, causing global inflation further deterioration. But at least from it now appears that this worry redundant. Libyan oil nissan 160 million barrels a day, a single Saudi of idle produce more than 400 million barrels, is global oil spare capacity about 600 million barrels a day. Libya's oil supply shortage currently has been spare capacity, so completely offset violence does not affect recent global Libyan crude pattern. So the oil and gold is a kind of uplink, the theme of speculative use the. Now that is a lack of strategic guiding significance of local speculative market and we think its persistent doubts.

 

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Review on March 20, for 2003, that is the war in Iraq, for the day of the 8 years of the coincidence of after March 20, Libya encounter air-raid. But different is, after the outbreak of the war in Iraq, whether in gold and oil prices continue to adjust stage. When Iraq nissan in 250 million barrels of crude oil to more than current Libya, the global energy supply more influence. But why gold and oil prices when the war in Iraq, and currently adjusting gold and oil prices stronger by theme support.company First of all, we think that no matter when the war in Iraq, or the current Libya war, its oil supply shortages are not from essentially affect global crude supply pattern, global other unused oil capacity makes up the corresponding supply shortages. But the gold market in 2003 with 11 years of the gold market has changed a lot. In 2003 the gold market investment function is not the average investor fully understand, so gold by largely real consumer demand, when in gold physical effects of the off-season, weak consumption market demand foundation make gold forming no corresponding market. Currently the gold market investment function has been investors highly recognized, investment and speculative demand replace physical gold consumption demand, becoming the main factors of influence. While investment and speculative relative to the real wu vwu yang consumer demand exists is concerned, its flexibility. In this case, some special factors, such as the current Libya war is easy to enlarge the investment and speculative demand gold, in spite of the current in the off-season, real consumption elasticity of demand significantly amplified promoted this gold rise. And this investment and speculative demand elasticity of amplification of ordinary investors often by suit, especially speculative suit, so the author thought that this is only a partial bull market.

 

 

 

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The us department of commerce Thursday

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In this market is only about the local bull market for gold ETF help judgment also comes with hedge fund operation analysis. Although the world's largest gold for listing for trading fund (ETF) SPDRGold Trust many trading exist, but think its overall doubt strategic direction is right. This gold rose from $1308 SPDR either, since since strategic errors and happened to this round or is not approved, the overall market upward in 1213.959 reduced warehouse state, at present, in the months since open ton near the absolute lows.

 

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Will hedge fund transactions are concerned, gold rose from $1308 since early, within hedge funds follow market once back to fill bull. But on February 25th, when gold prices back up to $1410 before highs beneath fund there is an obvious internal began many empty differences. Then in Libya situation worse background, forcing bull continued in short, many fund before March 4 appeared in a week of centralized stops. This kind of situation emerges, usually means a move is coming to an end. And earlier in the week, then doubled part fund bull, which let us empty layout gold prices will usher in a judge adjustment process. This process is really appeared, gold is the highest price adjustment from near $60 to $1380. Libya the deterioration of the situation then quickly attracts a lot of buying into gold pushed higher again. Judging from the subsequent buying intervention, we think is more ordinary investors in suit, enlarged the JinShi market war on Libya support. Hedge funds for the bull back now, not enthusiastically hedge fund holding period is still more gold net with relatively low for months, SPDR relative position is similar. So we think this the uplink, the fund gold is not very high attention, and this is our market is based on local bull market, not round the judgment, strategic bull market should be cautious investors treat this, unfavorable too follow suit.

 

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Economic data and corresponding monetary policy environment, should continue wu vwu yang to constitute JinShi see positive news. The bank of England (BOE), vice governor of BiEn Friday, March 18) says the UK inflation has entered the crisis may be higher goal level, next year. British February retail price index rose 1.0%, Britain on rate on February retail price index rose 5.5%, expected annual February, rose 5.2% UK growth in retail price index for the highest July 1991. But meanwhile, British February core CPI touched record. This means that Europe have faced increasing interest rates the necessity of controlling inflation. The European central bank also said in April of existing rates may, but no promise. Luxembourg central-bank governor was implied on Monday (March 21), warned that as global commodities prices continue to rise, the eurozone inflation risks exist uplink. The European central bank has prepared to cope with inflation of preparation, in order to maintain medium-term price stability. The implied commentary was revealed, the European central bank still tend to next month to raise interest rates. Several weeks ago, European central bank President jean-claude trichet language surprised the market says April may have to raise rates. Meanwhile, some American economic data this week are bad, the us Commerce Department on Wednesday (March 23), according to figures released seasonally adjusted in February, U.S. new-home sales record low. The us department of commerce Thursday (March 24) United States, according to figures released on February durable-goods orders came in below expectations, and in the past four months has 3 months decline. The United States on February durable-goods orders dropped 0.9%, expected increase rate of 1.1%. This data meant the United States will not ending monetary tightening monetary policy loose, the process must be at least delayed until 2012. The above data beckoned the European central bank should ahead of the federal reserve to raise interest rates, the dollar the continuation of looser monetary policy will continue to worsen, this constitutes inflation situation supportive environment of gold.